108,000 people. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-44%. The Bellwether County to Watch in Pennsylvania | OZY Clinton wouldn't mind having a win in Harris (Houston and its suburbs of over one million voters), Nueces (Corpus Christi) and Tarrant Ft. Worth/Arlington). A bellwether is a leader or an indicator of trends.. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. What's more, in this year's election voters in leading bellwether counties didn't just come out for Donald Trump marginally; they backed him in droves. It might be actually the best bellwether in the state, as it closely mirrored the statewide vote in both 2008 and 2012, but it has fewer voters than Jefferson, which we highlighted. (i.e. She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. More than half of all Americans livein just 143 counties, per the U.S. Census Bureau. That'sanother reason results of the contests might not have lined up. That includes 10 elections, including Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. The highest percentage being 66.1%. Republicans also have to do drive up their own turnout in big population areas like Charlotte, but also have to drive up margins in lots of medium-size population counties like Union (Charlotte suburb). 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Trump2012: Obama 50%, Romney 49%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 192,278Republicans: 182,364Unaffiliated: 40,047Other: 29,484. A few counties in America are known as the "bellwether counties": Those locations that always end up voting for the candidate who ultimately wins in the presidential election. For a county to be considered a bellwether it would have to vote for the winning party at each of the following elections: That is 4 switches in 8 election cycles! We will only focus on the most recent elections to increase the pool of counties to analyze.). In other words, how strongly do they swing to the winning party? That includes10elections, includingObama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. What Can We Learn from Bellwether Counties in Swing States? It came close to reflecting the statewide vote in 2012. By Dasha Burns, Antonia Hylton, Shaquille Brewster and Benjy Sarlin. Much of the rest of the state is rural and ruby red Republican. The meme compares information about former President Barack Obama in 2008 and President Donald Trump and Biden in 2020. We wanted to provide an easy-to-use guide of which counties to keep tabs on that could tell you how states might vote that are crucial to the election. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. So, even though they got it wrong in 2020, it is still worth figuring out how much they got it wrong by. (The highest value being 60.6%), When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there are 4 counties that have a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. We looked at the most recent swing counties and determined how many of the strongest Democrat voting counties in 2008, swung back to the Democrat party in 2020. Bonus points if you also keep track of the trends from 2016 to 2020. It's happened before. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. It's true that both Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2020 won in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. One of the big four suburban collar counties ringing Philadelphia and the fourth-most populous county in the state Bucks is always competitive. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 105,724Republicans: 70,060Unaffiliated: 15,141Other: 6,079. More Than Half of U.S. Population in 4.6 Percent of Counties, Fact check: Clarifying the comparison between popular vote and counties won in the 2020 election, Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election, Americas bellwethers crumbled in aligning with Trump in 20. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 54%-45% - 2008: Obama 57%-41%. Until this year. (Biden, for example, won over 70%of the vote in Los Angeles County. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. A Guide To The Election 'Guides' - NPR.org If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? Will That Last?]. The Tipping Points of the 2016 Election - The Atlantic What does this mean for the nation's political-economic divide? They're just facts about the vote. Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). What are the odds of getting 21 heads or 21 tails? Texas (38 electoral votes) - Likely Republican, Bellwether: Tarrant (Ft. Worth, Arlington). In fact, according to David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, compared to 1,096 counties that fit that description in 1992. The most populous county in the state and home to Manchester and Nashua, Hillsborough twice voted narrowly for Bush and twice for Obama. President-elect Joe Biden officially secured the presidency after the Electoral College met to give him and Vice President-elect Harris 306 votes. Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. This Gulf Coast county is home to Tampa and has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 1960. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 73%-25% - 2008: McCain 63%-34%. Both Clinton and Trump need to turn out their bases in Fulton (Atlanta). Fact check: Trump-backed Michigan congressional candidate John - CNN Or itcould have almost 10.1 million residents, like Los Angeles County. Like Jefferson (but slightly more populous), Arapahoe was once a GOP stronghold that voted for Obama twice. Washoe County2016 caucus winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Obama 51%, Romney 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Republican: 105,410Democrats: 102,422Unaffiliated: 53,048Others: 19,815. Share your comments below or join the related discussion on Gitlab. View our How You Can Help page, or contribute via It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election - WSJ As the country's demographics shift and the rural-urban divide becomes more pronounced, the chances appear slim. "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 369,734Republicans: 247,029No Party Affiliation: 218,642Others: 30,414. Co., as its sometimes referred to, has gone more closely for the statewide winner than any other big county. Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. Bellwether - Wikipedia Biden win ends streak for US election bellwethers - The Mercury News Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. The magnitude of the gap (or difference) is an indicator of the strength of the change in sentiment. Georgia (16 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Will they vote for the winner in 2016? The Atlantic wonders why we're still arguing about masks. In at least three of the past four elections, county differed . In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . But those states represent just 29, 18and six electoral votes, respectively. Voter Demographics (9). Twitter Twitter "I asked if they were from the Republican Party, and they said they were," she says. As such, the margins in bellwether counties became substantially more Republican even as the country only became a little more Republican, as you can see in the chart below. After Detroits Wayne County, Oakland County is the most-populous in the state. (Think about what it takes, and what is required for a county to always get the election right. The divisions were everywhere. ET. Click here, for more. 3. Here is a quick recap of what we have established so far: We will now introduce another new concept, called a switch county. 2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Read about our approach to external linking. 2016 Election (1135) Published Nov. 8, 2016 at 5:30 a.m. In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. As weve seen in the past two presidential elections, bellwether streaks can be suddenly ended thanks to Americas continually evolving political and demographic trends. But that changed in 2016 when Trump made huge gains with white voters without a college degree. In Valencia County, New Mexico, which had correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election since 1952, Mr Trump won by 10 points; in Indiana's Vigo County, which backed every president bar two since 1888, he prevailed by 15 points. Trump, who needs to pick off one Democratic leaning state, added a rally here Sunday night. One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. Find a coin, and flip it, and see how long it takes to (just) get 10 heads or 10 tails in a row. Feel free to forward a link to your elected officials as well. If it's close here, Georgia could be in play. Weeks after Election Day, there have still been no discoveriesof widespread voter fraud. It's true that it is unusual for the party of thecandidate who wins the White House to lose seats in the House of Representatives. Other counties to watch: Nowhere is more important than Polk (Des Moines). But it's still indicative of widespread support. Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. This well-educated, high-income and increasingly diverse D.C. exurb (Asians and Latinos togther make up a third of this county) went for Obama twice and roughly reflected the statewide margin. Joe Biden (631) If you take a coin and flip it 22 times. Scott Walker all three times his name appeared on the ballot. Other counties to watch: Perhaps no state more starkly displays the broader rural-urban divide in this country than Virginia. Clinton needs to be closer to Obama's 57 percent in 2008 than his 55 percent in 2012. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. But what if we told you that only 1 of these 22 counties voted for Biden in 2020? Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. We relaxed the constraint by introducing the concept of a swing county, i.e. Since only Clallam County voted Democrat in 2020, we know they all voted for the Republican party in 2020 and got it wrong. Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. Combinedwith general population growth, and this election had 27 million more participants. Find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. Bellwether counties are mostly a matter of chance and are now - USAPP Also key is Volusia, which represents a large county that has been close to the overall vote. Suburban Denvers Arapahoe and Jefferson counties have moved in tandem for the past four elections. Click on the relevant state then look for the county name.). They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. Oct. 28, 2021, 11:05 AM PDT. "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". Home to Davenport, the states third-largest city, Scott County is also packed with independents who can swing either way. Were doing a lot of adult retraining, he said. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. For the mathematically-minded: the table below shows that county outcomes do loosely follow a random outcome, up until a point. Sitting at the same Kozy Corners diner table that president Barack Obama ate from when on his own re-election campaign in July 2012, Mr Brikmanis, a lawyer, believes local Democrats' failure to get votes is also linked to the broader economic decline being experienced by rural and rust belt communities across the Midwest. Really stop reading. Election bellwether counties in the United States are counties that vote in alignment with the country as a whole in United States presidential elections, so that the county votes for the candidate who ultimately wins the election. Hillary Clinton (578) Some say it's not only the polarisation induced by the outgoing president that's to blame for traditional bellwether counties' failure to correctly predict the election. Once you have found all the results and looked at the trends, remember, these counties are the best counties at predicting an election outcome! Biden-voting counties equal 70% of America's economy. Their emotions and decision making process are real. It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. That's 14 in a row. "It gave suburban moderates an opportunity to vent their anger at Trump directly at the top of the ticket but continue to vote for the down-ballot Republicans they liked," he said. In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. Traditional Republican eastern counties of Carroll, Belknap and Rockingham, home to Portsmouth, fell back to the GOP in 2012, but not by enough for Romney, who had a home in the state, to win. Still, the state's worth watching. First, what are bellwether counties? We believe this was a mistake. Wilkes-Barres Luzerne County is traditionally Democratic territory in northeastern Pennsylvania but its also an aging, working-class county where Trumps message is resonating. But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. Utah (6 electoral votes) - Likely Republican. Here are the top 25 counties which voted over 60% for the Democrat party in 2008, and then voted Republican in 2016: There is no doubt these 25 counties heavily favor the Democrat party. The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. Asingle county could have as few as 88 residents,like Kalawao County, Hawaii. . Trump won Luzerne County by nearly 20 points in 2016, outperforming Romney . We know these counties are the best of the best at predicting the election winner. 03:30. Obama won both with 56 percent; if Trump is making them competitive, that could mean Iowa goes his way. From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. Just a tiny fraction of them truly matter. Key Counties: The race here is not binary, so watching the margins in the biggest counties will be important. It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). What science tells us about the afterlife. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. Election night is going to be information overload. They are not a statistical curiosity, but the perfect distillation or embodiment of the whole countrys sentiment. By Randy Yeip and Stuart A. Thompson. Home to Tipton (population 3,199), Cedar has gone with the winner of every presidential and Senate race since 1992. Lets rank these counties from highest to lowest Democrat voting percentages in the 2008 election. Pittsburghs Allegheny County, the second-most populous county in the state after Philadelphia, is heavily Democratic. Now imagine getting 21 out of 22! Still, the key for Democrats is Salt Lake, which gave Obama more than half his statewide vote there. Hamilton is ringed by heavily Republican Butler, Warren and Clermont counties, and it shares a border with Indiana, which is giving hope to GOP officials who think Trumps running mate, Indiana Gov. Kerry Sheridan/AFP/Getty Images Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 51%-49% - 2008: Obama 50%-49%. This sizable Cincinnati suburb has reflected the statewide margin in the last two presidential elections. "Especially considering there's a lot of things that has been done that don't get reported at all.". Republicans are bullish that the suburban county will stay in their column this time, in part because of frustration with Washington. Three-in-four votes for President Obama in 2012 came from Clark County. Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 57%-41% - 2008: McCain 55%-44%. The table shows the number of counties that voted for the winning candidate since the 1988 election. But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included). Or want to contribute to our open-source collection of articles and statistics? Potential canaries in the coal mine, aside from Montgomery, include Wood, south of Toledo, and Stark, home to Canton and the pro-football Hall of Fame in northeastern Ohio. Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. What are bellwether counties and can they actually predict elections We already claimed that bellwether counties are a lot more than statistical curiosities, but lets assume for the time being that normal rules of probability apply. History suggests not: just two-thirds of historic bellwether counties. You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. If Trump can't win back or cut into margins in places like Prince William, Fairfax and Loudon, he likely can't win the state. The 2020 election appears to illustrate that the partisanship that's defined politics in Washington for years has now spread to small-town America. It almost became religious.". What results did you discover? It's another one of those white, college-educated areas that could prove key to this election. For the first time "in years," says Mr Brikmanis, the Democratic National Party chose not to set up a local headquarters ahead of the November election. This fact check is available at IFCNs 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. Ventura County, California - two misses since 1920 (in 1976 and 2016). Here, local Republican candidates fuelled by Mr Trump's firebrand style almost wiped Democrats off the local political map. So the question is, how many of them switched back to the Democrat party in 2020? To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period. But since it's gotten so much attention this cycle with the possibility that independent Evan McMullin siphons off votes from Trump, we kept it in here. Second, the meme includes the number of counties each candidate won Obama at 873, Trump at 2,497 and Biden at 477. Trump also needs to overperform in Macomb, another Detroit suburb, which narrowly went for Obama in 2012. Maricopa (home to Phoenix) is the most populous county in the state by far 60 percent of voters live here. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties - Election Fraud at a Glance During the campaign Mrs Day-Baker says that local Democrats organised a "Ridin' for Biden" parade of vehicles through parts of the county. Here's why. So those suburban whites are key here and might tell a story not just about who wins the state, but who wins nationally. Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . "Democrats have really not done anything for the farmers They've totally ignored the rural community. Virginia (13 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008: How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020? Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. Other counties to watch: Palm Beach and Miami-Dade are both places where Clinton has to drive up the score. But its population has steadily diversified, including a surge in Asian and Latino voters, which has made it more competitive Obama carried it twice. Other counties to watch: Remarkably, Obama won every county in this state in 2008. Green Bays Brown County voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, then Barack Obama in 2008, then flipped to Mitt Romney in 2012.

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